The paper from Cardiff University, "Trends in Fatal Crashes Involving Young and Older Drivers in Great Britain", which has just been presented at the Safety 2010 World Conference puts forward the evidence that road risk affecting young drivers has increased relative to older drivers in recent years and that steps must be taken to address the issue.

Across the entire road safety profession there is absolute agreement that the young driver issue is an key priority, and the evidence that graduated driver licencing (GDL) could be a vital part of the mix is certainly there. A [review of several international studies into Graduated Licencing] has shown that these schemes are effective in reducing collision involvement of young drivers. Brake the road safety charity have also presented an [easily digestible breakdown of international experience on graduated licencing].

Here are a few small snippets of further analysis that might add something to the debate

Casualty Savings are Probably Too High

The reported estimates of lives saved from introducing GDL are around 200. RSA estimates that these reductions being projected into 2010 are considerably too high.  On review of casualty data from 2004-08, the reported age of the related driver being 17-21 only affected 18% of fatal casualties, applied in that percentage to the record low number of deaths from 2009, this would represent 400 deaths where the related driver was in this age group.  GDL would therefore have to deliver a 50% reduction in road deaths among 17-21 year old drivers, and no international study has ever shown GDL to deliver this kind of reduction.