Today (12th November 2016) Road Safety Analysis have published the initial findings of a study reviewing the effect of cycling levels on the relative risk to cyclists in 319 English local authorities. The study takes information from reported injury collisions as well as surveys into how often people cycle for utility purposes. The results have been featured in The Times and will be presented at the Road Safety GB National Conference in Bristol on 16th November 2016.
The preliminary findings look very encouraging and are in line with the expectations based on previous evidence. They also provide a good starting point for further development of the analysis. There is a clear relationship between risk and cycling levels with the distribution of points as seen in the chart below.
The authors, Richard Owen and George Ursachi are keen to develop the methodology further and ultimately develop a model that will help to predict injury rates based on changes in cycling levels.