RRCGB 2013 examines the various factors which can affect casualty trends in an attempt to shed light on why some periods in time experience greater reductions than others:
“What affects the casualty trends?
Reductions in vehicle speeds over time will also have affected casualty rates. “Since 2003, average free flow speeds for all vehicle types across each road classification have remained broadly stable.”[7]The following chart shows that since 2003, the percentages of motorcycles, cars and LGVs exceeding the speed limit on motorways has reduced. It shows that for cars and motorcycles the greatest reduction in the percentages exceeding the limit were seen between 2005 and 2008 (after the formation of the National Safety Camera Programme) and whilst reductions have continued since 2011, the reductions are lower. Perhaps the reductions in the percentage exceeding the speed limit have slowed because levels of speed enforcement have reduced. Alternatively, it could be that as the percentages of motorists willing to exceed the limit become lower, it becomes harder to change the behaviour of the minority.
It could be that a combination of the biggest gains having already been made (through medical and engineering changes) and that reductions in enforcement and ETP activity are playing a part in the stagnation of casualty reduction.
One area where road safety activity has reduced has been in drink-drive publicity. A Freedom of Information request from March 2014 asked questions about how much the Department for Transport had spent on drink drive campaigns over the previous decade.[8] There was a peak in spend on THINK! drink drive advertising media expenditure of £2,962,763 in the financial year of 2008-09 which was reduced to £363,917 in 2010-11. Data for the financial year 2006-07 was not available.
Between 2006 and 2010, there was a general downward trend in the number of road deaths in drink drive collisions, coinciding with high levels of road safety advertising spend. Since 2010, there has been little change in the number of people killed in drink drive collisions at a time when advertising spend has been substantially lower than in other time periods.[9]
The general standard blood alcohol limit in Europe is 0.5mg per ml (with some countries having a 0.2mg per ml limit) whilst the UK has the highest limit of 0.8mg per ml. A strong message that drink driving will not be tolerated, through increased ETP activity and the implementation of a lower limit, could have a significant effect on the number of road deaths in the UK.
It seems that the publication of RRCGB 2013 brings many questions about the position of casualty reduction in Great Britain in recent years and it appears that there are a variety of factors which could be contributing to the flat-lining of rates. It could be that the biggest gains have been made and that from now on, it will become increasingly hard to achieve high levels of casualty reduction. There are external influences such as the weather and the economic situation which play a part. However, there are activities, ranging from increasing levels of enforcement and ETP interventions to changes in legislation (for example, changes to the drink-drive limit and the introduction of [Graduated Driving Licensing], which has the potential to lead to significant reductions in road casualties in Great Britain), which could have a positive effect on numbers of road deaths.
Whilst data for one quarter should not be considered statistically significant and figures are currently provisional, it is concerning to see that the trend of poor casualty reduction appears to be continuing, with increases in the numbers of pedal cyclists and motorcyclists killed or seriously injured (KSI) in the year ending at Quarter 1 of 2014. There has also been little change in pedestrian or car user KSIs.
So, once again: is this the end of the golden era of casualty reduction in Great Britain?
[1] Reported Road Casualties Great Britain: 2013: Annual Report, (Department for Transport, London, September 2014), p. 9